Benefiting from lithium battery products going to sea, the sector's performance growth is steady

Industry demand comes from

(1) The scale of investment in manufacturing and logistics industry has increased, and the demand for handling tools has increased.

(2) Labor costs increase, factories, warehouses, etc., improve the requirements for work efficiency, and machines are the trend. 2014-2023 global forklift sales CAGR of 7%, domestic/overseas 13%/4%, respectively. In the short term, the industry's domestic prosperity is grinding to the bottom, and the annual sales of 700,000 units are basically the stock renewal demand; Overseas dealer inventory is in the digestion period, order growth has declined for more than 1 year (22-23 years), Q2 leading Toyota, Kion orders on hand picked up about 9%, reflecting inventory digestion, new orders marginal improvement.

In the second half of the year, domestic raw material prices are still low and volatile, and overseas revenue growth, the proportion of passive increase, forklift enterprise profit margin is expected to maintain a high level. In the medium and long term, there is still room for lithium electrochemical rate improvement at home and abroad, helping structure optimization + going to sea. In 2023, the domestic and overseas lithium electrochemical rate (the proportion of lithium balanced forklift trucks in the total forklift trucks) is 19%/13%, and the room for improvement is broad. The market is more worried about the risk of the United States, we estimate that the United States market accounts for about 12% of global sales and 18% of the scale, and the demand for trams is weaker than the core market Europe, and the two leading United States revenue accounts for less than 10%, the actual impact is controllable. In addition, with the increase in the age of forklift trucks sold overseas since 21 years ago, the after-market service will relay the sales of new machines to create new growth points.

The domestic two leading [Anhui Heli] and [Hangfork Group] have the leading advantages of product matrix integrity, channel construction and lithium electrochemical process, and the growth is strong, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention.